嘉宾：Morgane Kimmich Jupiter Research研究总监
Morgane：在某种程度上，加密货币可以重塑贷款领域的金融体系，因为这样消费者在需要贷款时不必去传统银行。这是缘于以加密货币为基础的P2P网络的出现，其中借贷平台将借款人与在平台上注册的贷方网络相匹配。除P2P借贷外，许多中央银行，如瑞典瑞典央行和丹麦中央银行，正在探索区块链技术是否可用于创建和发行DFC（法定数字货币）。法定数字货币的出现可以提高透明度，减少欺诈，实现即时结算并创建一个普遍接受和可互操作的支付工具。在用于国际汇款的新的IBM Blockchain World Wire系统中，一系列“稳定货币”被用来以更有效的方式处理跨境支付。
Morgane：区块链在金融领域的应用面临许多挑战。首先，区块链具有互操作性问题，因为它与银行已经使用的不同系统不兼容。这既是技术的挑战，也是思维模式的挑战，已建立的业务实践有时难以分解。其次，金融机构将需要使用私有区块链，这需要进一步技术发展以满足数据隐私和保护要求。此外，使用的平台需要足够强大以支持多种安全协议（例如权限和访问许可），以保护整个网络免受潜在攻击，并将不同部分的访问全新分配给不同的员工。此外，区块链技术仍然缺少金融机构广泛采用的国际和国家法规。最后，也是最大的障碍，区块链技术仍然存在可扩展性问题。虽然正在通过Hyperledger Fabric或Ethereum Plasma等解决方案逐步增加网络可以支持的交易数量，但该技术仍远未能够处理金融机构处理的大量数据。
JRJ：How will blockchain technology affect the financial industry? Is it possible that blockchain will reshape our financial service industry?How long do you think we are from the large-scale application of blockchain technology in the financial industry?
Morgane：Juniper sees the impacts of blockchain in financial services as many and diverse. For example, the introduction of blockchain technology in financial settlements enables more standardisation and reduces risks of error, while providing a safe, decentralised and transparent financial environment. This is particularly applicable in the money transfer area, which has witnessed the launch of several blockchain-powered networks.
However, Juniper believes that blockchain will have the most impact in financial services through its cost-saving potential. Even though paperwork reduction will positively impact the financial sector, great savings will come from compliance and credit history with banks expected to save close to $27 billion a year by 2030 through blockchain implementation.
While financial institutions have begun to show interest in blockchain applications, with examples found across financial settlements, digital currencies, smart contracts and IoT payments, Juniper believes that the financial sector as a whole is still some time away from a mass adoption of blockchain technology. Simply put, financial institutions are still scratching the surface of the potential of blockchain in financial institutions, partly due to the fact that several challenges, such as lack of interoperability, scalability issues and lack of legal clarity around its use, only to name a few, are still hindering the development of the technology.
Juniper expects considerable savings to be realised after 2024 with the technology becoming more common after 2030.
JRJ: How do they influence the financial system?Will they change the status of present currency?What do you think the future of cryptocurrencies will be like?
Morgane：Cryptocurrencies can, to some extent, reshape the financial system in the lending space, as consumers are not forced to go to traditional banks if they need loans. This is because of the emergence of several peer-to-peer networks based on cryptocurrencies, where lending platforms match borrowers to a network of lenders registered on a platform. In addition to P2P lending, many central banks, such as the Swedish Riksbank and Denmark’s Central Bank, are exploring whether blockchain technology can be used to create and issue DFC (Digital Fiat Currency), which would improve transparency, reduce fraud, enable instant settlement and create a universally acceptable and interoperable payment instrument. In the new IBM Blockchain World Wire system for international money transfer, a series of ‘stablecoins’ are used to process cross border payments in a much more efficient way.
There is much debate regarding the future of cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin has been suffered many criticisms in recent years, its creation has inspired the development of other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin or Ripple. Juniper believes that cryptocurrencies have tremendous potential when it comes to facilitating payments as they can lower costs, whilst increasing transparency and speed. However, Juniper believes that cryptocurrencies are very far from becoming fiat currencies, as they are still largely unstable and associated with fraud, hacks and scandals.
JRJ：In the development of Fintech, is there any technical bottleneck difficult to break? Meanwhile, is there any limitation in practical applications?
Morgane：There are many challenges in the application of blockchain in the financial sector. Firstly, blockchain has interoperability issues insofar as it is not compatible with different systems already used by banks. This is as much a challenge of mindset as it is technology, with established business practices sometimes difficult to break down. Secondly, FIs will need to use private blockchains, which require further development, in order to meet data privacy and protection requirements. Moreover, platforms used by FIs need to be powerful enough to support multiple security protocols (eg permissioned and permissionless access) protecting the overall network from potential attacks and attributing different section accesses to different members of staff. Additionally, blockchain technology is still missing the international and national regulations needed to be widely adopted by FIs. Finally, and probably the biggest hurdle of all, blockchain technology still has scalability issues. While progress is being made to increase the number of transactions a network can support every second, with solutions such as Hyperledger Fabric or Ethereum Plasma, the technology is still far from being able to handle the large volumes of data with which FIs deal.
JRJ：Is the information stored on the blockchain safe?Will this type of decentralized storage more likely to expose people's privacy to potential risk?What are the technical solutions?
Morgane：Security in the blockchain space is very hard to define. While blockchain’s decentralisation protocols makes it harder to hackers to obtain cryptocurrency or information, it doesn’t mean that it is impossible. Hackers are currently developing creative ways to steal cryptocurrency or information. For example, in the case of smart contracts, the information stored on blockchain is subject to the strength of the code underwriting these contracts in the first place. This poses serious security threats as codes have contained flaws in the past. For example, the DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organisation) was hacked in 2016 due to loopholes in its code. Unless operating offline, blockchain wallets are therefore facing the same security issues as non-blockchain systems. This is illustrated by the several high-profile bitcoin thefts that have been occurring for the past years, with the most recent seeing $40 million worth of bitcoin stolen from Binance following a large-scale hack in 2019.
While blockchain platforms can find solutions to these new hacks, these are mostly put in place after attacks have already occurred, on a ‘lesson learnt’ basis. To prevent these attacks in the first place, blockchain platforms need to carry out a complete risk assessment of their chains, identifying and acting on potential weak spots.